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2023 looks to be an exciting year in space. How well can you predict what will happen?
Play the space prediction challenge, and if you're the best, you might win a prize of nominal value...
Grab a piece of paper and a pen to write down your answers, and we'll get started.
We'll start with starship
#1 - the number of successful orbital launches, where success means "starship gets into whatever trajectory SpaceX was aiming for"
#2 - the number of superheavy landings at the launch site, where success means "the booster could be reused with a reasonable amount of maintenance"
#3 - the number of successful orbital landings of starship, where successful means a soft landing at the designated launch site.
#4 - the number of full stack launches from pad 39A in Florida
2023 promises launches of rockets old and new.
Write down your predicted successful flight counts for each of these launchers
#5 - Falcon Heavy
#6 - Vulcan
#7 - SLS
#8 - Ariane 6
#9 - Terran 1
#10 - RS1
#11 - Electron
Number 12
Electron might be the second rocket featuring reflown boosters.
How many electron flights will feature boosters that were recovered and refurbished?
There are two suborbital companies that may fly humans in 2023.
13: How many crewed flights will Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo complete in 2023?
14: And how many crewed flights will blue origin's new shepard complete in 2023?
15: Rocket lab is building a new engine known as Archimedes to be used on the neutron launcher.
Will Rocket lab test a full version of their Archimedes engine at Stennis space center in Mississippi in 2023?
Answer yes or no
16: Blue Origin has been making progress on New Glenn.
Will New Glenn flight hardware will be place on the pad at launch complex 36 on cape Canaveral space force station?
Flight hardware means hardware that could actually perform a launch. It could be a flight booster with engines or a full stack.
Pathfinders do not count.
17: The number of successful moon landings...
Lunar lander success will be measured by successful contact with the lander at least one day after the landing. Here are the entrants...
Japan's ispace has the Hakuta-R lander. Intuitive machines has their Nova-C lander, which current has two missions planned for 2023, and Astrobotic has their Peregrine lander.
Both the Nova-C and Peregrine are part of NASA's commercial lunar payload services program, or "clips"
That's four possible landings.
And we are just getting started...
The Indian space agency ISRO will take another shot at landing their Vikram lander, which crashed in a previous mission.
Japan's space agency JAXA will send their SLIM lander.
And finally, Roscosmos will send their luna-glob, or luna 25 lander.
That's 7 possible landings. How many do you think will be successful?
To play the game, submit your answer in a comment to this video
The comment should be in the following format, with the number of the question followed by your guess. If it's not in this format, I may decide that it's invalid.
For numeric questions, your score is the difference between your guess and the actual answer. You guess 4, the answer was 2, you score two points.
For yes/no questions a correct answer is 0 points, and incorrect answer is 1 point.
Lower scores are better.
"Flight" means a successful flight - the vehicle was delivered into the intended trajectory. Partial success counts as a failure.
I may need to make some judgement calls about success. The decision of the judge is final.
Comments submitted after January 31st are invalid.
If you enjoyed this video, please put $10 on red. C'mon baby, daddy needs a new lunar rover.